BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cinnamon Teal Population Trend in Colorado

All statesWaterfowl

Cinnamon Teal in Colorado has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-32%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cinnamon Teal Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cinnamon Teal in Colorado. See the full index history below.

Cinnamon Teal Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Colorado is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Colorado is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.260.000.70
20260.250.000.70
20270.250.000.70
20280.250.000.70
20290.250.000.70

Cinnamon Teal Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Cinnamon Teal in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Baxter Pass620161994
Mcphee Res.620241996
Dinosaur520241995
Castleton520212021
Cortez520071988
Delta419981998
Moffat420171970
Pagosa Spgs419741972
Rio Grnds Rs420091992
Tincup420232002
Alamosa320221988
Groundhog Rs319981994
Angora320192001
Yellowjacket Pass320232010
Stillwater Pass320012001
Maybell219761971
Kiowa220121973
Dolores219851969
Mica Butte219821982
Wray Gulch220021989
Walden220051991
Cortez 2220102009
Willow Peak220102010
Tarryall220221995
Doyleville220221988

Cinnamon Teal Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.