Guild

Waterfowl

38 species tracked. As a group, waterfowl are +121%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for waterfowl. See the full index history below.

Waterfowl Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Waterfowl as a group is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 0.31 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.35–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

If the recent trend holds, Waterfowl as a group is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 0.31 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.35–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.420.340.51
20270.430.340.51
20280.430.340.52
20290.430.350.52
20300.440.350.53

Waterfowl By State

Waterfowl group trend by state.
Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology →
Alaska-75%25
Rhode Island-45%3
Kansas-31%10
Washington-22%20
Colorado-21%14
South Dakota-17%14
Connecticut-13%7
Montana-11%21
Texas-9%15
Florida+10%7
Idaho+23%18
Arizona+46%5
Nebraska+52%11
Georgia+57%4
Oregon+59%19
South Carolina+61%3
California+78%17
Nevada+138%13
Minnesota+149%18
New York+166%8
Wisconsin+172%13
New Hampshire+173%6
Maine+198%9
Wyoming+204%19
North Dakota+215%16
New Jersey+229%6
Massachusetts+231%7
Louisiana+299%7
Michigan+341%10
Pennsylvania+360%7
Arkansas+361%5
Tennessee+365%3
New Mexico+366%11
Utah+370%15
Ohio+449%4
West Virginia+460%3
Vermont+523%7
Maryland+573%5
Indiana+793%5
Alabama11×4
Missouri12×3
Virginia12×4
Mississippi12×5
Kentucky12×3
Oklahoma12×5
Iowa13×5
North Carolina14×4
Illinois16×5
Delaware27×4

Member Species

Species in the Waterfowl guild.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →
American Black DuckAnatidae-95%1968
Mottled DuckAnatidae-79%1968
Mute SwanAnatidae-70%1968
Long-tailed DuckAnatidae-27%1987
Blue-winged TealAnatidae-14%1968
Surf ScoterAnatidae-7%1986
White-winged ScoterAnatidae-3%1984
Northern PintailAnatidae-0%1968
Red-breasted MerganserAnatidae+32%1969
MallardAnatidae+46%1968
Wood DuckAnatidae+60%1968
Fulvous Whistling-DuckAnatidae+67%1969
Muscovy DuckAnatidae+71%1989
Mexican DuckAnatidae+88%1986
RedheadAnatidae+93%1969
Northern ShovelerAnatidae+116%1969
Black ScoterAnatidae+122%1986
Ruddy DuckAnatidae+137%1969
Harlequin DuckAnatidae+140%1982
Hooded MerganserAnatidae+141%1968
GadwallAnatidae+159%1969
Cinnamon TealAnatidae+221%1970
American WigeonAnatidae+228%1968
Greater ScaupAnatidae+234%1984
Green-winged TealAnatidae+274%1968
Tundra SwanAnatidae+313%1986
CanvasbackAnatidae+328%1969
Trumpeter SwanAnatidae+380%1974
Common GoldeneyeAnatidae+421%1970
BuffleheadAnatidae+555%1971
Barrow's GoldeneyeAnatidae+733%1972
Ring-necked DuckAnatidae+863%1968
Common EiderAnatidae+877%1983
Lesser ScaupAnatidae+910%1968
Common MerganserAnatidae14×1968
Black-bellied Whistling-DuckAnatidae15×1969
Greater White-fronted GooseAnatidae19×1988
Canada GooseAnatidae105×1968