BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck

AnatidaeWaterfowlDendrocygna autumnalis

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck has surged: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

15×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
267RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Black-bellied Whistling-Duck

The Black-bellied Whistling-Duck (Dendrocygna autumnalis) is a North American member of the Ducks, Geese & Waterfowl (Anatidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the waterfowl.

Size
12–43.5 in long (30–110 cm) — a medium to large waterfowl (typical for the family)
Habitat
Lakes, ponds, rivers, marshes and sheltered coastal waters.
Diet
Aquatic plants, seeds and invertebrates, dabbled at the surface or dived for.
Range
Recorded on 267 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 14 states, most concentrated in the Peninsular Florida.
Family
Anatidae · Waterfowl

Notable Black-bellied Whistling-Duck TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-bellied Whistling-Duck. See the full index history below.

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-bellied Whistling-Duck is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.21–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.21–0.4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-bellied Whistling-Duck is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.21–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.330.180.47
20260.330.190.47
20270.340.200.48
20280.340.200.48
20290.350.210.49

Where the Black-bellied Whistling-Duck Is Detected

BBS routes recording Black-bellied Whistling-Duck, sized by most recent count.

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck Population Trend by State

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabamainsufficient datan/a6
Arizona-54%19884
Arkansas+137%200910
Florida105×199561
Georgia+143%201414
Indianainsufficient datan/a1
Louisiana45×200341
Mississippiinsufficient datan/a11
Missouriinsufficient datan/a1
Nebraskainsufficient datan/a1
Oklahomainsufficient datan/a2
South Carolinainsufficient datan/a3
Tennesseeinsufficient datan/a1
Texas+602%1969111

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Edwards Plateau-15%19949
Oaks and Prairies13×197336
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas+274%201020
Mississippi Alluvial Valley20×200832
Southeastern Coastal Plain+564%201340
Peninsular Florida92×199550
Sierra Madre Occidental-50%19893
Tamaulipan Brushlands+217%196928
Gulf Coastal Prairie19×196940

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 1358% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.