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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauWaterfowl

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Edwards Plateau has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

-15%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Edwards Plateau. See the full index history below.

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 23% by 2028 — from 0.44 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±162.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±162.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 23% by 2028 — from 0.44 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±162.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19882028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.330.000.80
20250.330.000.80
20260.330.000.81
20270.340.000.81
20280.340.000.81

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PidcokeTEXAS42010
AdamsvilleTEXAS32023
MontellTEXAS32023
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS32018
BoerneTEXAS22016
Valley SpgsTEXAS22015
Dripping SpgTEXAS22018
UtopiaTEXAS12023
San SabaTEXAS12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.