BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyWaterfowl

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 2008.

20×Since 2008
32Routes In Region
18Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 2008.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 5.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 3.4–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029
5.0Projected 2029 index
3.4–6.695% range
±27.9%Backtest error
20062029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20254.02.45.6
20264.32.65.9
20274.52.96.1
20284.73.16.3
20295.03.46.6

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
ShawLOUISIANA432024
RamahLOUISIANA292024
Baton RougeLOUISIANA272024
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI242024
IsolaMISSISSIPPI172022
BrousvilleLOUISIANA132024
BelairLOUISIANA122024
River RoadLOUISIANA92024
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI72024
MayflowerLOUISIANA62023
GibsonLOUISIANA62019
KraemerLOUISIANA62024
Port AllenLOUISIANA62024
FrogmoreLOUISIANA42023
EudoraARKANSAS32008
Rayville 2LOUISIANA32023
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA32024
MaynardARKANSAS22024
KelsoARKANSAS22016
FloydLOUISIANA22017
ShelbyMISSISSIPPI22023
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI22018
Dahomey NwrMISSISSIPPI22019
South BendARKANSAS12023
EnglandARKANSAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.