BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyWaterfowl

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 2008.

20×Since 2008TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 2008.

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 4.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 3.6–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 4.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 3.6–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20062030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.22.75.7
20274.53.06.0
20284.73.26.2
20294.93.46.4
20305.23.66.7

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShawLOUISIANA432024
River RoadLOUISIANA392025
BrousvilleLOUISIANA192025
RamahLOUISIANA172025
BelairLOUISIANA172025
IsolaMISSISSIPPI172022
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI132025
Baton RougeLOUISIANA122025
DeventerMISSOURI72025
MayflowerLOUISIANA62023
GibsonLOUISIANA62019
KraemerLOUISIANA62025
Port AllenLOUISIANA62024
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI52025
EnglandARKANSAS42025
FrogmoreLOUISIANA42023
EudoraARKANSAS32008
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA32024
MaynardARKANSAS22024
GillettARKANSAS22025
KelsoARKANSAS22016
FloydLOUISIANA22017
Rayville 2LOUISIANA22025
ShelbyMISSISSIPPI22023
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI22018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.