BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWaterfowl

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 117× on the route-weighted index since 1995.

117×Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 117× on the route-weighted index since 1995.

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 5.0–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.0–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 5.0–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19932030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.14.010
20277.34.310
20287.54.511
20297.84.711
20308.05.011

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ClewistonFLORIDA1112023
St LucieFLORIDA832025
Polk CityFLORIDA512025
Wildernes PkFLORIDA502014
Ridge HarborFLORIDA482025
Sunniland GrFLORIDA472021
CrewsvilleFLORIDA352025
WebbFLORIDA342025
Shawano 2FLORIDA292011
Indiantown 2FLORIDA272025
Lake BuffumFLORIDA222024
Winter GardnFLORIDA212019
Myakka HeadFLORIDA172011
PalmdaleFLORIDA172018
Myakka Head 2FLORIDA172019
ArbuckleFLORIDA152021
ScottsmoorFLORIDA122025
Mt. OliveFLORIDA122025
St AugustineFLORIDA102024
KenansvilleFLORIDA102025
SandyFLORIDA102015
Devils GardnFLORIDA102025
Mabel 2FLORIDA82025
San AntonioFLORIDA72025
BelmoreFLORIDA72019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.