BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWaterfowl

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 92× on the route-weighted index since 1995.

92×Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 92× on the route-weighted index since 1995.

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.2 (95% range 4.4–10.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.4–10.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.2 (95% range 4.4–10.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19932029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.33.59.1
20266.53.89.3
20276.74.09.5
20287.04.29.7
20297.24.410.0

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ClewistonFLORIDA1112023
Wildernes PkFLORIDA502014
Sunniland GrFLORIDA472021
Polk CityFLORIDA422024
Devils GardnFLORIDA372024
St LucieFLORIDA362024
ScottsmoorFLORIDA342024
Shawano 2FLORIDA292011
Lake BuffumFLORIDA222024
Indiantown 2FLORIDA222023
Winter GardnFLORIDA212019
Myakka HeadFLORIDA172011
PalmdaleFLORIDA172018
Myakka Head 2FLORIDA172019
ArbuckleFLORIDA152021
Ridge HarborFLORIDA142024
Mt. OliveFLORIDA132024
Citrus ParkFLORIDA122024
Mabel 2FLORIDA112019
St AugustineFLORIDA102024
SandyFLORIDA102015
Holey LandFLORIDA92023
Island GroveFLORIDA82023
WebbFLORIDA82024
BelmoreFLORIDA72019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.