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Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck Population Trend in Florida

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Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Florida has surged: up 134× on the route-weighted index since 1995.

134×Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-bellied Whistling-Duck Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Florida. See the full index history below.

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Florida is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 6.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 3.3–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–7.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Florida is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 6.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 3.3–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19932030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.72.76.8
20274.92.96.9
20285.13.07.1
20295.23.27.3
20305.43.37.4

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clewiston11120232015
St Lucie8320252011
Polk City5120252009
Wildernes Pk5020142004
Ridge Harbor4820252002
Sunniland Gr4720212010
Crewsville3520252004
Webb3420252013
Shawano 22920112006
Indiantown 22720252018
Lake Buffum2220242009
Winter Gardn2120192016
Myakka Head1720111996
Palmdale1720182013
Myakka Head 21720192012
Arbuckle1520212008
Scottsmoor1220252016
Mt. Olive1220252003
St Augustine1020242024
Kenansville1020252016
Sandy1020151993
Devils Gardn1020252012
Dowling Park820252017
Mabel 2820252017
Holey Land720252004

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.