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Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck Population Trend in Florida

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Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Florida has surged: up 105× on the route-weighted index since 1995.

105×Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-bellied Whistling-Duck Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck has surged in Florida: up 105× on the route-weighted index since 1995.

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.8 (95% range 3.0–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.8 (95% range 3.0–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19932029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.22.46.1
20264.42.56.2
20274.52.76.4
20284.72.86.5
20294.83.06.7

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clewiston11120232015
Wildernes Pk5020142004
Sunniland Gr4720212010
Polk City4220242009
Devils Gardn3720242012
St Lucie3620242011
Scottsmoor3420242016
Shawano 22920112006
Lake Buffum2220242009
Indiantown 22220232018
Winter Gardn2120192016
Myakka Head1720111996
Palmdale1720182013
Myakka Head 21720192012
Arbuckle1520212008
Ridge Harbor1420242002
Mt. Olive1320242003
Citrus Park1220242022
Mabel 21120192017
St Augustine1020242024
Sandy1020151993
Holey Land920232004
Webb820242013
Island Grove820232003
Belmore720192019

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.