BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesWaterfowl

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Louisiana has surged: up 45× on the route-weighted index since 2003.

45×Since 2003TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-bellied Whistling-Duck Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck has surged in Louisiana: up 45× on the route-weighted index since 2003.

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Louisiana is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.2–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Louisiana is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.2–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20012029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.92.45.4
20264.12.65.6
20274.32.85.7
20284.53.05.9
20294.73.26.1

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shaw4320242007
Forked Island 23920112010
Ramah2920242011
Esther2820242007
Baton Rouge2720242018
Ltl Chenier2320242002
Sabine Nwr1920082001
Kaplan1620232008
Brousville1320242014
Belair1220242008
Hackberry 21220242019
River Road920242014
Richard920232007
Woodlawn720212011
Pearl River720242021
Mayflower620232018
Gibson620192013
Port Allen620242009
Forked Island620242008
Kraemer620242006
Frogmore420232013
Derry 2420242021
Atchafalaya320242012
Plettenberg320212021
Vinton 2320242022

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansasfloridageorgiaindianamississippimissourinebraskaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.