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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck Population Trend in Louisiana

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Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Louisiana has surged: up 52× on the route-weighted index since 2003.

52×Since 2003TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-bellied Whistling-Duck Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck has surged in Louisiana: up 52× on the route-weighted index since 2003.

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.2 (95% range 3.6–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.2 (95% range 3.6–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20012030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.42.85.9
20274.63.06.1
20284.83.26.3
20295.03.46.5
20305.23.66.7

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shaw4320242007
Hackberry 24320252019
River Road3920252014
Forked Island 23920112010
Ltl Chenier2420252002
Brousville1920252014
Sabine Nwr1920082001
Ramah1720252011
Belair1720252008
Kaplan1620232008
Baton Rouge1220252018
Forked Island1120252008
Vinton 2920252022
Esther720252007
Woodlawn720212011
Mayflower620232018
Gibson620192013
Port Allen620242009
Kraemer620252006
Pearl River520252021
Frogmore420232013
Derry 2420242021
Atchafalaya320242012
Plettenberg320212021
Maurice320242010

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansasfloridageorgiaillinoisindianamississippimissourinebraskanorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.