BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWaterfowl

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 19× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

19×Since 1969
40Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 19× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 15 (95% range 7.9–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029
15Projected 2029 index
7.9–2295% range
±36.6%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025147.021
2026147.321
2027147.521
2028157.722
2029157.922

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
IndianolaTEXAS622024
WinnieTEXAS542024
Loyola BeachTEXAS402009
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA392011
Lag AtascosaTEXAS352024
Bayside 2TEXAS352004
EstherLOUISIANA282024
Port AcresTEXAS282024
Bayside 3TEXAS272024
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA232024
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA192008
KatyTEXAS172024
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS172024
KaplanLOUISIANA162023
Oyster LakeTEXAS162024
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA122024
StowellTEXAS122023
RichardLOUISIANA92023
PetronilaTEXAS82023
WoodlawnLOUISIANA72021
Forked IslandLOUISIANA62024
DanburyTEXAS62024
Rock IslandTEXAS62023
BaysideTEXAS62003
Moon Lake 2TEXAS62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.