BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesWaterfowl

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

13×Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 144% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.23–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+144%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 144% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.23–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.132.9
20261.50.162.9
20271.60.183.0
20281.60.203.0
20291.60.233.0

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Black-bellied Whistling-Duck in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lone OakTEXAS112022
CreedmoreTEXAS72014
WalburgTEXAS62023
BurtonTEXAS62024
FanninTEXAS52023
Three RiversTEXAS52024
GrafordTEXAS42015
HearneTEXAS42021
BriteTEXAS42024
Wills PointTEXAS42013
PaigeTEXAS42017
CampbelltonTEXAS32024
KosseTEXAS32018
HenriettaTEXAS32022
YoakumTEXAS32021
SchroederTEXAS21997
HobsonTEXAS22024
Arenosa CrkTEXAS22021
MuldoonTEXAS22016
LockhartTEXAS22023
Massey LakeTEXAS22024
OlaTEXAS22018
DallasTEXAS22024
WeatherfordTEXAS22022
SeldenTEXAS22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.