BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Trumpeter Swan Population Analysis

AnatidaeWaterfowlCygnus buccinator

Trumpeter Swan has surged: up 380% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+380%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
200RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Trumpeter Swan

The Trumpeter Swan (Cygnus buccinator) is a North American member of the Ducks, Geese & Waterfowl (Anatidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the waterfowl.

Size
12–43.5 in long (30–110 cm) — a medium to large waterfowl (typical for the family)
Habitat
Lakes, ponds, rivers, marshes and sheltered coastal waters.
Diet
Aquatic plants, seeds and invertebrates, dabbled at the surface or dived for.
Range
Recorded on 200 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 17 states, most concentrated in the Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Family
Anatidae · Waterfowl

Notable Trumpeter Swan TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Trumpeter Swan. See the full index history below.

Trumpeter Swan Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Trumpeter Swan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.08 (95% range 0.05–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Trumpeter Swan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.08 (95% range 0.05–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.040.10
20270.070.040.11
20280.080.040.11
20290.080.040.11
20300.080.050.11

Where the Trumpeter Swan Is Detected

BBS routes recording Trumpeter Swan, sized by most recent count.

Trumpeter Swan Population Trend by State

Trumpeter Swan population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska+21%198545
Arkansasinsufficient datan/a1
Idahoinsufficient datan/a3
Iowainsufficient datan/a3
Michigan+335%199626
Minnesota44×199650
Montana-92%19756
Nebraska-8%19946
Nevadainsufficient datan/a1
North Dakotainsufficient datan/a1
Ohioinsufficient datan/a5
Oregon-88%19746
South Dakotainsufficient datan/a2
Utahinsufficient datan/a1
Washingtoninsufficient datan/a2
Wisconsin+647%199529
Wyoming+386%199213

Trumpeter Swan Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Trumpeter Swan population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 4+25%198731
Northern Pacific Rainforest-64%198510
Great Basin-87%197410
Northern Rockies-83%197522
Prairie Potholes+424%201014
Boreal Hardwood Transition13×199657
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+55%19946
Prairie Hardwood Transition38×199437

Trumpeter Swan Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 380% since 1974.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.