BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Trumpeter Swan Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesWaterfowl

Trumpeter Swan in Nebraska has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

-8%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Trumpeter Swan Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Trumpeter Swan in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Trumpeter Swan Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Trumpeter Swan in Nebraska is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±232.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±232.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Trumpeter Swan in Nebraska is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±232.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.110.000.24
20270.110.000.24
20280.110.000.24
20290.110.000.24
20300.120.000.24

Trumpeter Swan Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Trumpeter Swan in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Piester Lake720251983
Gordon320052005
Mullen220231996
Nenzel220252019
Brownlee120172006
Swan Lake120152013

Trumpeter Swan Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansasidahoiowamichiganminnesotamontananevadanorth-dakotaohiooregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.