BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Trumpeter Swan Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWaterfowl

Trumpeter Swan in Minnesota has surged: up 43× on the route-weighted index since 1996.

43×Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Trumpeter Swan Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Trumpeter Swan has surged in Minnesota: up 43× on the route-weighted index since 1996.

Trumpeter Swan Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Trumpeter Swan in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.4 (95% range 0.64–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.64–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Trumpeter Swan in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.4 (95% range 0.64–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19942029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.482.0
20261.30.522.0
20271.30.562.1
20281.40.602.1
20291.40.642.2

Trumpeter Swan Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Trumpeter Swan in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sherburne Nr1920242003
Tamarac Nwr1020241994
Dawson620212021
Nebish520232011
Glendale520242013
Arlington420232019
Knapp420242011
Pine River420242017
Edwards420242022
Wylie420232023
Austin420222014
Bagley420051997
Cass Lake320122006
Debs320242012
Sawbill Camp320242023
Money Creek220242013
Minnetonka220241996
Courtland220232021
Princeton220242010
Chokio220242024
Cromwell220242007
Wigwam Bay220212013
Backus220242013
Glyndon220242010
Tenney220152015

Trumpeter Swan Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansasidahoiowamichiganmontananebraskanevadanorth-dakotaohiooregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.