BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Trumpeter Swan Population Trend in Michigan

All statesWaterfowl

Trumpeter Swan in Michigan has surged: up 315% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

+315%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Trumpeter Swan Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Trumpeter Swan has surged in Michigan: up 315% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

Trumpeter Swan Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Trumpeter Swan in Michigan is projected to rise about 62% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±359.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+62%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±359.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Trumpeter Swan in Michigan is projected to rise about 62% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±359.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19902029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.000.95
20260.340.000.95
20270.340.000.95
20280.340.000.96
20290.340.000.96

Trumpeter Swan Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Trumpeter Swan in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ontonagon420192016
Tahquamenon420242023
Bergland320142012
Marenisco320192015
Cohoctah320242022
Maple Grove220232023
Betchler Lks220232023
Creighton220042004
Beaver Lake220112011
Gibbs City120242019
Brocky Lake120192019
Hamburg 2120212021
Seney Nwr120241995
Sidnaw120192016
Barry S.G.A.120062006
Bear Lake120222019
Gooseneck120102010
Lawrence120232023
Nashville120062006
Galesburg120191990
Howardsville120152009
Rochester120172017
Raco120242015

Trumpeter Swan Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansasidahoiowaminnesotamontananebraskanevadanorth-dakotaohiooregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.