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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Trumpeter Swan Population Trend in Alaska

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Trumpeter Swan in Alaska has surged: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

+107%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Trumpeter Swan Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Trumpeter Swan has surged in Alaska: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Trumpeter Swan Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Trumpeter Swan in Alaska is projected to rise about 69% by 2029 — from 0.51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.85 (95% range 0.33–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+69%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.85Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.33–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Trumpeter Swan in Alaska is projected to rise about 69% by 2029 — from 0.51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.85 (95% range 0.33–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.800.271.3
20260.810.281.3
20270.830.301.4
20280.840.311.4
20290.850.331.4

Trumpeter Swan Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Trumpeter Swan in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mud River1020221995
Northway720231992
Nicholai Sl620241996
Galena (Short)620241998
Slana520241995
Petersville520081992
Circle420241999
Chistochina420221991
Kanuti Canyn420162005
Mcgrath420222018
Seven Lakes420122012
Cordova320241983
Sheep Mtn320171983
Kanuti Lake320242006
Copper River320111993
Paxson Lake219971993
Nabesna Road220241989
Tower Bluffs220232010
Cantwell220151986
Donelly Dome220172012
Haines220092006
Thompson Pas220182015
Tonsina220212014
Sitka (Short)219911991
King Salmon220242009

Trumpeter Swan Population Trend in Other States

arkansasidahoiowamichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanorth-dakotaohiooregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.