BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Trumpeter Swan In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionWaterfowl

Trumpeter Swan in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 38× on the route-weighted index since 1994.

38×Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Trumpeter Swan in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Trumpeter Swan In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Trumpeter Swan in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 0.44 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.33–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.33–0.7295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Trumpeter Swan in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 0.44 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.33–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19902030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.460.270.66
20270.480.280.67
20280.490.300.69
20290.510.310.70
20300.520.330.72

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Trumpeter Swan in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA132025
HudsonWISCONSIN132025
EsdaileWISCONSIN102022
BrownsvilleWISCONSIN82022
DresserWISCONSIN72024
PrincetonMINNESOTA52025
OsseoMINNESOTA42025
KnappMINNESOTA42024
EdwardsMINNESOTA42024
MatherWISCONSIN42023
Buena VistaWISCONSIN42024
CohoctahMICHIGAN32024
LimestoneOHIO32019
LoraineWISCONSIN32025
MontereyMICHIGAN22025
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA22024
Le CenterMINNESOTA22015
Brook ParkMINNESOTA22018
AshbyMINNESOTA22021
CumberlandWISCONSIN22024
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN22023
PrincetonWISCONSIN22024
N AndoverWISCONSIN22022
LawrenceMICHIGAN12023
NashvilleMICHIGAN12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.