BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Trumpeter Swan In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Waterfowl

Trumpeter Swan in BCR 4 has edged up: up 25% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

+25%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Trumpeter Swan in BCR 4. See the full index history below.

Trumpeter Swan In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Trumpeter Swan in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 81% by 2030 — from 0.68 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.41–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+81%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.41–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Trumpeter Swan in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 81% by 2030 — from 0.68 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.41–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.331.9
20271.20.352.0
20281.20.372.0
20291.20.392.0
20301.20.412.0

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Trumpeter Swan in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mud RiverALASKA102022
MonahanALASKA82025
NorthwayALASKA72023
CircleALASKA52025
SlanaALASKA52024
PetersvilleALASKA52008
ChistochinaALASKA42022
Nicholai SlALASKA42025
Kanuti CanynALASKA42016
McgrathALASKA42022
Kanuti LakeALASKA32024
Tower BluffsALASKA22023
MaclarenALASKA22025
CantwellALASKA22015
TonsinaALASKA22021
Donelly DomeALASKA22017
Galena (Short)ALASKA22025
Paxson LakeALASKA21997
Nabesna RoadALASKA22024
KuskulanaALASKA22025
Birch LakeALASKA12022
Kenny LakeALASKA12013
SourdoughALASKA12025
Swan Lake RdALASKA12015
Chena Hot Spring 2ALASKA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.