Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Trumpeter Swan In BCR 4
Trumpeter Swan in BCR 4 has surged: up 133% on the route-weighted index since 1987.
+133%Since 1987
31Routes In Region
38Years
Notable Signals
long arc increasecomputed index
Trumpeter Swan has surged in BCR 4: up 133% on the route-weighted index since 1987.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Trumpeter Swan in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 63% by 2029 — from 0.78 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.47–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+63%Change by 2029
1.3Projected 2029 index
0.47–2.195% range
±49.6%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.2 | 0.37 | 2.0 |
| 2026 | 1.2 | 0.40 | 2.0 |
| 2027 | 1.2 | 0.42 | 2.0 |
| 2028 | 1.2 | 0.44 | 2.0 |
| 2029 | 1.3 | 0.47 | 2.1 |
Routes In BCR 4
| Mud River | ALASKA | 10 | 2022 |
| Northway | ALASKA | 7 | 2023 |
| Nicholai Sl | ALASKA | 6 | 2024 |
| Galena (Short) | ALASKA | 6 | 2024 |
| Slana | ALASKA | 5 | 2024 |
| Petersville | ALASKA | 5 | 2008 |
| Circle | ALASKA | 4 | 2024 |
| Chistochina | ALASKA | 4 | 2022 |
| Seven Lakes | ALASKA | 4 | 2012 |
| Kanuti Canyn | ALASKA | 4 | 2016 |
| Mcgrath | ALASKA | 4 | 2022 |
| Kanuti Lake | ALASKA | 3 | 2024 |
| Tower Bluffs | ALASKA | 2 | 2023 |
| Cantwell | ALASKA | 2 | 2015 |
| Tonsina | ALASKA | 2 | 2021 |
| Donelly Dome | ALASKA | 2 | 2017 |
| Paxson Lake | ALASKA | 2 | 1997 |
| Nabesna Road | ALASKA | 2 | 2024 |
| Birch Lake | ALASKA | 1 | 2022 |
| Maclaren | ALASKA | 1 | 2024 |
| Monahan | ALASKA | 1 | 2021 |
| Kenny Lake | ALASKA | 1 | 2013 |
| Sourdough | ALASKA | 1 | 2023 |
| Swan Lake Rd | ALASKA | 1 | 2015 |
| Chena Hot Spring 2 | ALASKA | 1 | 2022 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.