BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Trumpeter Swan In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWaterfowl

Trumpeter Swan in Great Basin has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-84%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Trumpeter Swan has collapsed in Great Basin: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Trumpeter Swan In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Trumpeter Swan in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Trumpeter Swan in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.05
20260.010.000.05
20270.000.000.05
20280.000.000.05
20290.000.000.05

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Trumpeter Swan in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harney LakeOREGON31993
Blackft ResIDAHO21992
Ruby Valley 2NEVADA22016
Fish LakeOREGON22024
MaldenWASHINGTON22022
Turnbull NwrWASHINGTON22023
BatesIDAHO12018
PrincetonOREGON11973
Malheur NwrOREGON11992
Warner VallyOREGON11995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.