Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Merganser Population Analysis

AnatidaeWaterfowlMergus merganser

Common Merganser has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

About the Common Merganser

The Common Merganser (Mergus merganser) is a North American member of the Ducks, Geese & Waterfowl (Anatidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the waterfowl.

Size
12–43.5 in long (30–110 cm) — a medium to large waterfowl (typical for the family)
Habitat
Lakes, ponds, rivers, marshes and sheltered coastal waters.
Diet
Aquatic plants, seeds and invertebrates, dabbled at the surface or dived for.
Range
Recorded on 751 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 29 states, most concentrated in the Northern Rockies.
Family
Anatidae · Waterfowl

Notable Common Merganser TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Merganser. See the full index history below.

Common Merganser Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Merganser is projected to rise about 111% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.08–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

If the recent trend holds, Common Merganser is projected to rise about 111% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.08–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.150.080.23
20270.150.080.23
20280.150.080.23
20290.160.080.23
20300.160.080.23

Where the Common Merganser Is Detected

BBS routes recording Common Merganser, sized by most recent count.

Common Merganser Population Trend by State

Common Merganser population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska-91%198352
Arizonainsufficient datan/a1
California-55%197068
Colorado+221%198045
Connecticut-15%19927
Idaho-69%197331
Maine+62%197642
Marylandinsufficient datan/a3
Massachusetts-2%20026
Michigan-18%198126
Minnesota-16%198321
Montana+367%197545
Nevada+9%19915
New Hampshire+107%197612
New Jersey+2%19917
New Mexicoinsufficient datan/a3
New York+319%196962
North Dakotainsufficient datan/a1
Ohioinsufficient datan/a2
Oregon-14%197164
Pennsylvania+929%197856
South Dakotainsufficient datan/a2
Utah-11%199510
Vermont+227%197718
Virginiainsufficient datan/a6
Washington+6%197153
West Virginiainsufficient datan/a16
Wisconsin+188%197228
Wyoming-1%197759

Common Merganser Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Common Merganser population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 2-82%199410
BCR 4+309%198719
Northern Pacific Rainforest-53%1970107
Great Basin+71%197159
Northern Rockies+68%1970121
Boreal Hardwood Transition+58%197364
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain-15%198929
Atlantic Northern Forest+182%196990
Sierra Nevada+58%197217
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+236%197556
Badlands and Prairies-15%197923
Prairie Hardwood Transition+79%19799
Appalachian Mountains23×1977105
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast-60%19928
Coastal California-29%197822

Common Merganser Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 1270% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.