BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Merganser Population Trend in New York

All statesWaterfowl

Common Merganser in New York has surged: up 319% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+319%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Merganser Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Merganser in New York. See the full index history below.

Common Merganser Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Common Merganser in New York is projected to rise about 171% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.06–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+171%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±115.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Merganser in New York is projected to rise about 171% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.06–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.220.040.40
20270.230.050.40
20280.230.050.41
20290.230.060.41
20300.240.060.41

Common Merganser Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Common Merganser in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harris Hill820192019
Lisle620072007
Austerlitz520072007
North River420071987
Highland319971996
Macdougall320222001
Cobleskill220152015
Laurens220241997
Randolph220082008
Centerville220052005
Alder Creek220041989
Oneida220092004
Speculator220231966
Gabriels220131986
Sabattis219701970
S Vandalia220161990
Oxford 2120131993
Catskills120031999
Ghent120252006
Durham119711971
Medusa120211994
Meridale120242003
Duanesburg120182018
S Berne120112011
Platte Cove120181990

Common Merganser Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.