Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Common Merganser Population Trend in Alaska
Common Merganser in Alaska has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1983.
-87%Since 1983
52Routes In State
42Years
Notable Common Merganser Trends in Alaska
long arc declinecomputed index
Common Merganser has collapsed in Alaska: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1983.
Common Merganser Population Forecast in Alaska
If the recent trend holds, Common Merganser in Alaska is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–3.695% range
±79.2%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 3.7 |
| 2026 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 3.7 |
| 2027 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 3.7 |
| 2028 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 3.6 |
| 2029 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.6 |
Common Merganser Survey Routes in Alaska
| Katmai N.P. | 22 | 2005 | 2005 |
| Cold Bay (Short) | 18 | 1984 | 1984 |
| Copper River | 12 | 2011 | 1995 |
| Anvik River | 8 | 2024 | 1999 |
| Kodiak 2 | 6 | 2024 | 2008 |
| Salmon Lake | 5 | 2019 | 2019 |
| Burma Road | 4 | 2009 | 1997 |
| Goodnews Bay | 4 | 2004 | 2004 |
| Ketchikan | 3 | 2001 | 2001 |
| Unalakleet River | 3 | 2024 | 1998 |
| Ft. Richrdsn | 3 | 2000 | 2000 |
| Togiak River | 3 | 2005 | 1994 |
| Sitka (Short) | 3 | 1992 | 1986 |
| Hyder | 3 | 2007 | 1998 |
| Circle | 2 | 2022 | 2011 |
| Chatanika R | 2 | 2023 | 1992 |
| Chistochina | 2 | 2008 | 2008 |
| Monahan | 2 | 2010 | 2010 |
| Juneau | 2 | 1989 | 1989 |
| Council | 2 | 2019 | 2000 |
| Kanuti Canyn | 2 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Skagway | 2 | 2021 | 1994 |
| Zarembo | 2 | 2010 | 1996 |
| Petersville | 2 | 2003 | 1992 |
| Kanektok Riv | 2 | 2003 | 1999 |
Common Merganser Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.