BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Teal

AnatidaeWaterfowlSpatula discors

Blue-winged Teal has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-1%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
987RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Blue-winged Teal

The Blue-winged Teal (Spatula discors) is a North American member of the Ducks, Geese & Waterfowl (Anatidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the waterfowl.

Size
12–43.5 in long (30–110 cm) — a medium to large waterfowl (typical for the family)
Habitat
Lakes, ponds, rivers, marshes and sheltered coastal waters.
Diet
Aquatic plants, seeds and invertebrates, dabbled at the surface or dived for.
Range
Recorded on 987 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 44 states, most concentrated in the Prairie Potholes.
Family
Anatidae · Waterfowl

Notable Blue-winged Teal TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-winged Teal. See the full index history below.

Blue-winged Teal Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.40 (95% range 0.18–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.18–0.6295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.40 (95% range 0.18–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.410.180.63
20260.400.180.63
20270.400.180.63
20280.400.180.63
20290.400.180.62

Where the Blue-winged Teal Is Detected

BBS routes recording Blue-winged Teal, sized by most recent count.

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend by State

Blue-winged Teal population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabamainsufficient datan/a2
Alaskainsufficient datan/a7
Arizonainsufficient datan/a2
Arkansas-8%19769
California+165%197518
Colorado+17%197265
Delawareinsufficient datan/a3
Floridainsufficient datan/a3
Idaho-44%197124
Illinois-80%196932
Indiana-21%197120
Iowa+38%196926
Kansas-90%196935
Kentuckyinsufficient datan/a3
Louisiana-96%197515
Maineinsufficient datan/a4
Marylandinsufficient datan/a5
Massachusettsinsufficient datan/a2
Michigan-76%196946
Minnesota-70%196973
Mississippiinsufficient datan/a1
Missouriinsufficient datan/a9
Montana+4%197068
Nebraska+153%196950
Nevadainsufficient datan/a2
New Hampshireinsufficient datan/a3
New Mexico-94%19779
New York-50%197027
North Dakota+173%196950
Ohio-58%196814
Oklahoma+30%197625
Oregon-71%197223
Pennsylvaniainsufficient datan/a7
Rhode Islandinsufficient datan/a1
South Dakota-56%196951
Tennesseeinsufficient datan/a4
Texas+103%196957
Utah-49%199513
Vermont-61%19714
Virginiainsufficient datan/a1
Washington-72%197438
West Virginiainsufficient datan/a1
Wisconsin-85%196867
Wyoming-27%197268

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Blue-winged Teal population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-46%197314
Great Basin-59%197277
Northern Rockies-42%197082
Prairie Potholes+30%1969117
Boreal Hardwood Transition-93%196862
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain-61%196831
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-36%197134
Badlands and Prairies-56%196999
Shortgrass Prairie+76%197180
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-69%196974
Oaks and Prairies-78%197013
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie-63%196883
Prairie Hardwood Transition-82%1968105
Central Hardwoods-68%197312
Mississippi Alluvial Valley-72%197313
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast-13%196912
Gulf Coastal Prairie-89%197124

Blue-winged Teal Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 1% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.