BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesWaterfowl

Blue-winged Teal in Oklahoma has increased: up 30% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+30%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-winged Teal Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-winged Teal in Oklahoma. See the full index history below.

Blue-winged Teal Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±118.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±118.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±118.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.130.000.39
20250.120.000.39
20260.120.000.39
20270.120.000.39
20280.120.000.39

Blue-winged Teal Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Blue-winged Teal in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wakita819921992
Keyes720212016
Rosston519991982
Lookout419731973
Felt420232023
Beaver419931982
Hooker420151996
Woodward319931992
Phroso220122012
Cookietown220022002
Beggs220172008
Erick220161972
Welch220092009
Hardesty219911973
Goodwater220122012
Cooperton220212019
Colcord219971997
Jet220111993
Loco119721972
Eagle City119991976
Grimes120151977
Douglas120142009
Tegarden120161984
Hollis120132013
Arapaho120051997

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.