BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend in Colorado

All statesWaterfowl

Blue-winged Teal in Colorado has edged up: up 17% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+17%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-winged Teal Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-winged Teal in Colorado. See the full index history below.

Blue-winged Teal Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Colorado is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±150.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±150.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Colorado is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±150.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.000.53
20260.110.000.53
20270.110.000.53
20280.100.000.52
20290.100.000.52

Blue-winged Teal Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Blue-winged Teal in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Briggsdale1120231980
Bethune1020162016
Haswell1020061998
Neegrande1020061999
Flagler820232007
Pagosa Spgs619771976
Edler520142014
Waverly420181991
Julesburg420212002
Karval420192005
Tincup420152015
Arsenal319981991
Pinneo319811981
Kiowa320181973
Lamar320011981
Mica Butte319871982
Walden320032001
Fort Morgan320231998
Prospect Val319991993
Wet Mtns.320022002
Angora320052005
San Luis320101995
Maybell219821971
Fleming220031973
Rush220212021

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.