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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend in Kansas

All statesWaterfowl

Blue-winged Teal in Kansas has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-90%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-winged Teal Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-winged Teal has collapsed in Kansas: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue-winged Teal Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Kansas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±635%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±635%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Kansas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±635%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.001.8
20260.000.001.8
20270.000.001.8
20280.000.001.8
20290.000.001.8

Blue-winged Teal Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Blue-winged Teal in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St John1920191969
Plymell1020212021
Leoti820152003
Kanopolis620192019
Albert520241967
Trading Post520142008
Galesburg420142014
Coats419871975
Hays419751973
Grigston420192000
Solomon420042004
Coldwater220191997
Lakin219921969
Wreford220192007
Gray219711971
Wallace220141975
Covert219951969
Jewell220011982
Phillipsburg219871968
Gove219971975
Berwet220132006
Olsburg220132007
Damar220162016
Wellington120232023
Dalton119971997

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.