BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesWaterfowl

Blue-winged Teal in Louisiana has collapsed: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-96%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-winged Teal Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-winged Teal has collapsed in Louisiana: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Blue-winged Teal Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Louisiana is projected to fall about 100% by 2028 — from 0.10 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±655.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±655.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Louisiana is projected to fall about 100% by 2028 — from 0.10 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±655.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.002.5
20250.000.002.5
20260.000.002.5
20270.000.002.5
20280.000.002.5

Blue-winged Teal Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Blue-winged Teal in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gran Chenier10219711971
Ltl Chenier1820141991
Maurice420232016
Mayflower419751975
Kaplan420192013
Hackberry319671967
Sabine Nwr 2320142014
De Quincy320152015
Creole219791971
Sabine Nwr219891989
Port Allen220122012
Richard220121998
Forked Island220122012
Esther219941994
Ville Platte120072007

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.