BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend in Michigan

All statesWaterfowl

Blue-winged Teal in Michigan has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-76%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-winged Teal Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-winged Teal has collapsed in Michigan: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue-winged Teal Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±380.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2023TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2023 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±380.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±380.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672023
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20190.000.000.29
20200.000.000.29
20210.000.000.29
20220.000.000.29
20230.000.000.29

Blue-winged Teal Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Blue-winged Teal in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Howardsville1719851970
Deckerville519871987
Chippewa Lk.420111992
Seney Nwr420091992
Lawrence419831970
Monterey420031980
Frederic319931993
St Charles319801976
Juniata319911968
Ontonagon219851972
Bootjack219941994
Hungerford219961996
Tahquamenon219781975
Gilchrist219951995
Lake City219931979
Traverse Cty219761976
Coopersville219951979
Galesburg220001967
Hamburg220002000
Pickford220071978
Holt219861973
Fowlerville219851983
Pettysville219771977
Tyre219881983
Adair219801978

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.