BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend in North Dakota

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Blue-winged Teal in North Dakota has surged: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+105%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-winged Teal Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-winged Teal has surged in North Dakota: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue-winged Teal Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in North Dakota is projected to rise about 78% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 11–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+78%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in North Dakota is projected to rise about 78% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 11–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026209.830
2027201031
2028211031
2029211131
2030211131

Blue-winged Teal Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Blue-winged Teal in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Danzig 25220252019
Horsehead Lk4820251980
Danzig4320141982
Wild Rose4320251982
Lakota3820091968
Braddock3520231988
Carpio3120231969
Sydney2819831968
Buchanan2220251967
Wimbledon2120251981
Bowman2120251967
Lakota 21920252010
Montpelier1820251990
Sheyenne Lk1420251980
Lake George1320231967
Rolla1220241969
Regan1220251968
Parshall1220131982
Webster1120241991
Forman1020251968
Niles820251989
Lark519821969
Cooperstown420251969
Nash420151981
Gorham420251968

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.