BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWaterfowl

Blue-winged Teal in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-70%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-winged Teal Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-winged Teal has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue-winged Teal Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.47 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±99.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.47 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.540.001.2
20260.520.001.2
20270.510.001.2
20280.490.001.2
20290.470.001.2

Blue-winged Teal Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Blue-winged Teal in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tyler1420191993
Tenney1220161978
Glenwood1220191993
Fairmont1119931993
Chokio North820241993
Tracy720192004
Big Stone720121995
Chokio520241970
Minnetonka420151969
Mille Lacs419751967
Lake Bronson420031978
Sherburne Nr320231990
Dawson320241973
Money Creek220181970
Chatfield219801980
Hartland220121967
Ash Creek219941978
Redwood Fall220081978
Osseo220241967
Knapp220191968
Gluek220191969
Cromwell220171968
Glyndon220241978
Hovland219901976
Crane Lake219891989

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.