BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesWaterfowl

Blue-winged Teal in Nebraska has surged: up 153% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+153%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-winged Teal Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-winged Teal has surged in Nebraska: up 153% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue-winged Teal Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Nebraska is projected to rise about 77% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+77%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Nebraska is projected to rise about 77% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.003.8
20261.80.003.8
20271.80.003.8
20281.80.003.8
20291.80.003.8

Blue-winged Teal Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Blue-winged Teal in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hay Springs2020192019
Wheeler Co1820241978
Bassett720242018
Midway519911991
Crescent Lk520171980
Stratton420151994
Piester Lake420241967
Gordon420191978
Murray Lake420161992
Brownlee420241992
Mullen420231990
Berea420191981
Belvidere320241975
Kenesaw320191973
Gretna320161975
Nenzel320242019
Kearney220231977
Oglala Nat. Grass.220191999
Bartley219781978
Surprise220191988
Richland220181977
Petersburg219821982
Paxton220161971
Dalton219831983
Winside219981987

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.