BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWaterfowl

Blue-winged Teal in Oregon has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-71%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-winged Teal Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-winged Teal has fallen sharply in Oregon: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Blue-winged Teal Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.020.000.23
20230.010.000.23
20240.010.000.23
20250.010.000.23
20260.010.000.22

Blue-winged Teal Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Blue-winged Teal in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clover Creek519771977
Umpqua319681968
Sparta319771977
Canby320162016
Joseph220151977
Princeton219831972
Blizzard Gap220181988
Green Mtn.219981998
Harney Lake219981998
Merrill220042004
Warner Vally220112011
Umatilla219981994
Crooked Riv.220022002
Sheaville220162016
Ordnance119771972
Albee119721972
Imnaha119741974
Zumwalt120021998
Wagontire119711971
Modoc Point120141973
Adair120112000
Fish Lake120211977
Catlow Rim120152015

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.