BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend in Washington

All statesWaterfowl

Blue-winged Teal in Washington has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-72%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-winged Teal Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-winged Teal has fallen sharply in Washington: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Blue-winged Teal Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±94.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.71
20260.000.000.71
20270.000.000.71
20280.000.000.71
20290.000.000.71

Blue-winged Teal Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Blue-winged Teal in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Moses Coulee920021993
Harwood619931993
Ellensburg519871987
Nighthawk520192019
Curlew519931993
Bay View520082000
Brewster420181977
Harrington420001981
Carnation420082008
Port Angeles319811972
Moses Lake320101974
Columbia Nwr320211992
Asotin320022002
Tonasket320141984
Ewan319991995
Warm Beach220001972
Twisp219801980
Chewelah219811981
Reardan220191973
Rimrock220132013
Wapato219931986
Bickleton219801980
Winthrop220152002
Cusick219821982
Wilbur219851985

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.