BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend in New York

All statesWaterfowl

Blue-winged Teal in New York has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-50%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-winged Teal Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-winged Teal in New York. See the full index history below.

Blue-winged Teal Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19682024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.000.000.07
20210.000.000.07
20220.000.000.07
20230.000.000.07
20240.000.000.07

Blue-winged Teal Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Blue-winged Teal in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
E Newark1019881988
Orleans319721972
Huntington219861986
Bedford219771977
Warwick219721972
Duanesburg219891989
Mendon219681968
West Seneca219811981
Sheridan219691969
St Johnsburg219771977
Byron219891969
Cicero Ctr219771969
Alder Creek219741974
Waddington219981986
Ghent119771977
Harris Hill120192019
Phillips Cr119771972
Cattaraugus119851975
Castile120001968
Centerville119871987
E Youngstown119941971
Churchville119761976
N Victory 2119931993
N Wilmurt119721971
North Easton119841970

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.