BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend in Utah

All statesWaterfowl

Blue-winged Teal in Utah has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

-49%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-winged Teal Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-winged Teal in Utah. See the full index history below.

Blue-winged Teal Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Utah is projected to fall about 82% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-82%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Utah is projected to fall about 82% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19922029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.11
20260.020.000.11
20270.020.000.11
20280.010.000.10
20290.010.000.10

Blue-winged Teal Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Blue-winged Teal in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wellington 2620102010
Saleratus Cr520071997
Callao420241997
Altonah219991999
E. Bear Lake220182018
Snowville220152015
Lynn219921992
M Warner Res219961993
Alton120001999
Neponset Res120161997
Dixie Nf119971996
Randolph120091992
Bear River120231992

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.