BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend in Utah

All statesWaterfowl

Blue-winged Teal in Utah has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

-55%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-winged Teal Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-winged Teal has fallen sharply in Utah: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

Blue-winged Teal Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19922030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.020.000.11
20270.020.000.11
20280.020.000.11
20290.020.000.11
20300.010.000.10

Blue-winged Teal Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Blue-winged Teal in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wellington 2620102010
Saleratus Cr520071997
Callao420241997
Altonah219991999
E. Bear Lake220182018
Snowville220152015
Lynn219921992
Randolph220251992
M Warner Res219961993
Alton120001999
Neponset Res120161997
Dixie Nf119971996
Bear River120241992

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.