BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend in Texas

All statesWaterfowl

Blue-winged Teal in Texas has surged: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+103%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-winged Teal Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-winged Teal has surged in Texas: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue-winged Teal Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±241.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±241.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±241.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.250.000.54
20260.250.000.54
20270.250.000.55
20280.260.000.55
20290.260.000.55

Blue-winged Teal Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Blue-winged Teal in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cactus5020232016
Pantex1020231975
Glen Rose919681968
Padre Island Pais820152015
Katy720232008
Pear Valley720162014
Claytonville720192000
Gruver620192005
Loyola Beach 2520222010
Loyola Beach520081999
Texline519991979
Dougherty520171997
Dalhart520231994
Sadler420112011
Waka420231975
Winnie320191997
Haskell320222016
Kempner320061972
Weinert319931972
Fannin320072007
Post320241989
Lamesa320152015
Childress320152015
Lag Atascosa220041977
Kingsville220101971

Blue-winged Teal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.