BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Teal In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWaterfowl

Blue-winged Teal in Gulf Coastal Prairie has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-89%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-winged Teal has collapsed in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Blue-winged Teal In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2028 — from 0.48 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±105.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2028 — from 0.48 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.050.002.4
20250.030.002.4
20260.000.002.3
20270.000.002.3
20280.000.002.3

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Blue-winged Teal in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA1021971
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA182014
Padre Island PaisTEXAS82015
KatyTEXAS72023
Loyola BeachTEXAS52008
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS52022
MauriceLOUISIANA42023
KaplanLOUISIANA42019
HackberryLOUISIANA31967
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA32014
WinnieTEXAS32019
CreoleLOUISIANA21979
EstherLOUISIANA21994
RichardLOUISIANA22012
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA21989
Forked IslandLOUISIANA22012
Lag AtascosaTEXAS22004
IndianolaTEXAS22004
Moon Lake 2TEXAS22012
Bayside 3TEXAS22016
Goliad PrairieTEXAS22012
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA12007
StowellTEXAS11992
DanburyTEXAS11995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.