BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Teal In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauWaterfowl

Blue-winged Teal in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-36%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-winged Teal in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Blue-winged Teal In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.11
20260.020.000.10
20270.010.000.10
20280.010.000.10
20290.010.000.10

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Blue-winged Teal in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pagosa SpgsCOLORADO61977
Wellington 2UTAH62010
TincupCOLORADO42015
WaldenCOLORADO32003
San LuisCOLORADO32010
Wet Mtns.COLORADO32002
AngoraCOLORADO32005
Sybille CynWYOMING32012
FalfaCOLORADO21974
TarryallCOLORADO22023
DoylevilleCOLORADO21989
GuffeyCOLORADO22023
AlamosaCOLORADO22024
Rio Grnds RsCOLORADO21992
PaoniaCOLORADO22002
PowderhornCOLORADO22014
AltonahUTAH21999
M Warner ResUTAH21996
MoffatCOLORADO11997
DoloresCOLORADO11971
CortezCOLORADO12007
PiedraCOLORADO12014
Lake City 2COLORADO12022
DinosaurCOLORADO12024
Baxter PassCOLORADO12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.