BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-winged Teal In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWaterfowl

Blue-winged Teal in Prairie Potholes has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+1%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
118Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-winged Teal in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Blue-winged Teal In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 115% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 4.7–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+115%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.7–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 115% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 4.7–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026114.517
2027114.517
2028114.617
2029114.617
2030114.717

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Blue-winged Teal in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA562011
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA522025
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA482025
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA432014
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA432025
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA382009
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA371984
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA352023
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA312023
WestbyMONTANA302025
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA302019
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA281983
RaymondSOUTH-DAKOTA262021
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA222025
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA212025
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA192025
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA182025
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA152014
TylerMINNESOTA142019
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA142025
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA132023
TenneyMINNESOTA122016
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA122024
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA122025
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA122013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.