BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Teal In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWaterfowl

Blue-winged Teal in Prairie Potholes has increased: up 30% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+30%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-winged Teal in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Blue-winged Teal In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 5.2–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.2–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 5.2–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025114.917
2026115.017
2027115.017
2028115.117
2029115.217

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Blue-winged Teal in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA1042024
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA742024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA652024
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA622024
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA562011
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA502024
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA462024
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA432014
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA412024
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA392022
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA382009
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA371984
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA342024
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA332024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA312024
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA312023
WestbyMONTANA302024
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA302019
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA282024
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA281983
RaymondSOUTH-DAKOTA262021
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA212022
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA152024
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA152014
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA152024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.