BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Teal In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestWaterfowl

Blue-winged Teal in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-46%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-winged Teal in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Blue-winged Teal In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2021, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±202.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2021TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2021 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±202.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2021, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±202.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682021
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20170.030.000.13
20180.030.000.13
20190.030.000.13
20200.020.000.13
20210.020.000.13

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Blue-winged Teal in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bay ViewWASHINGTON52008
SitkaALASKA41994
CarnationWASHINGTON42008
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA31980
UmpquaOREGON31968
CanbyOREGON32016
Port AngelesWASHINGTON31981
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA21975
Warm BeachWASHINGTON22000
South ElmaWASHINGTON21990
Copper RiverALASKA11993
YrekaCALIFORNIA11993
AdairOREGON12011
IssaquahWASHINGTON11980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.