BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Teal In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainWaterfowl

Blue-winged Teal in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-61%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-winged Teal has fallen sharply in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-winged Teal In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±165.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±165.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±165.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.000.000.10
20240.000.000.10
20250.000.000.10
20260.000.000.10
20270.000.000.10

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Blue-winged Teal in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OrleansNEW-YORK31972
Slippery RkPENNSYLVANIA31985
DuanesburgNEW-YORK21989
MendonNEW-YORK21968
West SenecaNEW-YORK21981
SheridanNEW-YORK21969
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK21977
ByronNEW-YORK21989
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK21977
Alder CreekNEW-YORK21974
WaddingtonNEW-YORK21998
PeruOHIO21969
LattasburgOHIO21978
GhentNEW-YORK11977
CastileNEW-YORK12000
E YoungstownNEW-YORK11994
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK11976
N Victory 2NEW-YORK11993
N WilmurtNEW-YORK11972
North EastonNEW-YORK11984
OgdensburgNEW-YORK11989
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK12004
Harris HillNEW-YORK12019
PittsfieldOHIO12022
GarrettsvileOHIO11970

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.