Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Teal In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regions Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Waterfowl

Blue-winged Teal in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-61%Since 1968

31Routes In Region

34Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Blue-winged Teal has fallen sharply in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±165.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027

0.00Projected 2027 index

0.00–0.1095% range

±165.3%Backtest error

Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.

Year	Projected index	95% low	95% high
2023	0.00	0.00	0.10
2024	0.00	0.00	0.10
2025	0.00	0.00	0.10
2026	0.00	0.00	0.10
2027	0.00	0.00	0.10

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Blue-winged Teal in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.

Orleans	NEW-YORK	3	1972
Slippery Rk	PENNSYLVANIA	3	1985
Duanesburg	NEW-YORK	2	1989
Mendon	NEW-YORK	2	1968
West Seneca	NEW-YORK	2	1981
Sheridan	NEW-YORK	2	1969
St Johnsburg	NEW-YORK	2	1977
Byron	NEW-YORK	2	1989
Cicero Ctr	NEW-YORK	2	1977
Alder Creek	NEW-YORK	2	1974
Waddington	NEW-YORK	2	1998
Peru	OHIO	2	1969
Lattasburg	OHIO	2	1978
Ghent	NEW-YORK	1	1977
Castile	NEW-YORK	1	2000
E Youngstown	NEW-YORK	1	1994
Churchville	NEW-YORK	1	1976
N Victory 2	NEW-YORK	1	1993
N Wilmurt	NEW-YORK	1	1972
North Easton	NEW-YORK	1	1984
Ogdensburg	NEW-YORK	1	1989
Philadelphia	NEW-YORK	1	2004
Harris Hill	NEW-YORK	1	2019
Pittsfield	OHIO	1	2022
Garrettsvile	OHIO	1	1970

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.