BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-winged Teal In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieWaterfowl

Blue-winged Teal in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-62%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-winged Teal has fallen sharply in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue-winged Teal In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 0.82 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 0.82 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.480.002.0
20270.460.001.9
20280.440.001.9
20290.420.001.9
20300.400.001.9

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Blue-winged Teal in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crescent LkNEBRASKA272025
St JohnKANSAS192019
WakitaOKLAHOMA81992
AlbertKANSAS72025
BassettNEBRASKA72024
Pear ValleyTEXAS72016
KanopolisKANSAS62019
TableNEBRASKA62025
RosstonOKLAHOMA51999
CoatsKANSAS41987
HaysKANSAS41975
SolomonKANSAS42004
StrattonNEBRASKA42015
Swan LakeNEBRASKA42025
GordonNEBRASKA42019
BrownleeNEBRASKA42025
MullenNEBRASKA42023
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA42025
LookoutOKLAHOMA41973
BeaverOKLAHOMA41993
BelvidereNEBRASKA32024
KenesawNEBRASKA32019
NenzelNEBRASKA32025
WoodwardOKLAHOMA31993
WeinertTEXAS31993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.