BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Teal In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieWaterfowl

Blue-winged Teal in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-69%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-winged Teal has fallen sharply in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue-winged Teal In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.79 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.79 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.480.002.0
20260.460.001.9
20270.440.001.9
20280.420.001.9
20290.400.001.9

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Blue-winged Teal in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St JohnKANSAS192019
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA182024
WakitaOKLAHOMA81992
BassettNEBRASKA72024
Pear ValleyTEXAS72016
KanopolisKANSAS62019
AlbertKANSAS52024
Crescent LkNEBRASKA52017
RosstonOKLAHOMA51999
CoatsKANSAS41987
HaysKANSAS41975
SolomonKANSAS42004
StrattonNEBRASKA42015
Piester LakeNEBRASKA42024
GordonNEBRASKA42019
BrownleeNEBRASKA42024
MullenNEBRASKA42023
LookoutOKLAHOMA41973
BeaverOKLAHOMA41993
BelvidereNEBRASKA32024
KenesawNEBRASKA32019
NenzelNEBRASKA32024
WoodwardOKLAHOMA31993
WeinertTEXAS31993
ChildressTEXAS32015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.