BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-winged Teal In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionWaterfowl

Blue-winged Teal in Boreal Hardwood Transition has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-89%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-winged Teal has collapsed in Boreal Hardwood Transition: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-winged Teal In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.010.000.24
20270.010.000.23
20280.000.000.23
20290.000.000.23
20300.000.000.23

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Blue-winged Teal in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Union TwpWISCONSIN121987
Seney NwrMICHIGAN42009
Mille LacsMINNESOTA41975
GreenbushMINNESOTA42025
FredericMICHIGAN31993
OntonagonMICHIGAN21985
BootjackMICHIGAN21994
TahquamenonMICHIGAN21978
GilchristMICHIGAN21995
Lake CityMICHIGAN21993
Traverse CtyMICHIGAN21976
PickfordMICHIGAN22007
CromwellMINNESOTA22025
HovlandMINNESOTA21990
Crane LakeMINNESOTA21989
WaskishMINNESOTA22022
BabbittMINNESOTA21994
BigforkMINNESOTA22021
Cass LakeMINNESOTA22005
NebishMINNESOTA22011
Tamarac NwrMINNESOTA22023
CouderayWISCONSIN21980
IrmaWISCONSIN22003
HollisterWISCONSIN22004
Washington IWISCONSIN21989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.