BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-winged Teal In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyWaterfowl

Blue-winged Teal in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-74%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-winged Teal has fallen sharply in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Blue-winged Teal In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±259.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±259.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±259.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.000.31
20270.000.000.31
20280.000.000.31
20290.000.000.31
20300.000.000.31

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Blue-winged Teal in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DeventerMISSOURI71973
MayflowerLOUISIANA41975
WilsonARKANSAS31995
SaffellARKANSAS22000
Port AllenLOUISIANA22012
PawpawTENNESSEE22010
West TylerARKANSAS11983
South BendARKANSAS11978
AugustaARKANSAS11994
MaynardARKANSAS12008
EnglandARKANSAS12025
DundeeMISSISSIPPI11973
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.