BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-winged Teal In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWaterfowl

Blue-winged Teal in Badlands and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-59%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-winged Teal has fallen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue-winged Teal In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 0.79 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.97Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 0.79 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.002.2
20271.00.002.2
20281.00.002.2
20290.990.002.2
20300.970.002.1

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Blue-winged Teal in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA212025
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA132015
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA122015
IndianSOUTH-DAKOTA92024
SchoonoverWYOMING91986
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA82025
WebsterMONTANA72024
NatronaWYOMING71992
BillWYOMING71998
JordanMONTANA62024
LocateMONTANA62024
LarkNORTH-DAKOTA51982
NewcastleWYOMING52000
KayceeWYOMING52025
Caballa CrkWYOMING52011
CircleMONTANA42023
IngomarMONTANA42004
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA42025
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA42024
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA42025
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA42011
VolunteerSOUTH-DAKOTA42025
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA42021
PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA42024
S. PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.