BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-winged Teal In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWaterfowl

Blue-winged Teal in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+146%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-winged Teal has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Blue-winged Teal In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 0.61 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1006.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.54Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1006.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Teal in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 0.61 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1006.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.550.001.5
20270.540.001.5
20280.540.001.5
20290.540.001.5
20300.540.001.5

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Blue-winged Teal in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CactusTEXAS502023
WakaTEXAS262025
PanhandleTEXAS132025
BriggsdaleCOLORADO112023
BethuneCOLORADO102016
HaswellCOLORADO102006
NeegrandeCOLORADO102006
PlymellKANSAS102021
FlaglerCOLORADO82023
LeotiKANSAS82015
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO81985
KeyesOKLAHOMA72021
ClaytonvilleTEXAS72019
GruverTEXAS62019
YoderWYOMING62023
EdlerCOLORADO52014
PantexTEXAS52025
TexlineTEXAS51999
DoughertyTEXAS52017
DalhartTEXAS52023
WaverlyCOLORADO42018
JulesburgCOLORADO42021
KarvalCOLORADO42019
GrigstonKANSAS42019
Murray LakeNEBRASKA42016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.