BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barrow's Goldeneye Population Analysis

AnatidaeWaterfowlBucephala islandica

Barrow's Goldeneye has surged: up 733% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+733%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Barrow's Goldeneye

The Barrow's Goldeneye (Bucephala islandica) is a North American member of the Ducks, Geese & Waterfowl (Anatidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the waterfowl.

Size
12–43.5 in long (30–110 cm) — a medium to large waterfowl (typical for the family)
Habitat
Lakes, ponds, rivers, marshes and sheltered coastal waters.
Diet
Aquatic plants, seeds and invertebrates, dabbled at the surface or dived for.
Range
Recorded on 77 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 7 states, most concentrated in the Northern Rockies.
Family
Anatidae · Waterfowl

Notable Barrow's Goldeneye TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barrow's Goldeneye. See the full index history below.

Barrow's Goldeneye Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barrow's Goldeneye is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barrow's Goldeneye is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.020.000.06
20270.020.000.06
20280.020.000.06
20290.020.000.06
20300.020.000.06

Where the Barrow's Goldeneye Is Detected

BBS routes recording Barrow's Goldeneye, sized by most recent count.

Barrow's Goldeneye Population Trend by State

Barrow's Goldeneye population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska-30%198430
Coloradoinsufficient datan/a1
Idaho-91%19995
Montana-86%19858
Oregoninsufficient datan/a4
Washington+89%197313
Wyoming+66%197916

Barrow's Goldeneye Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Barrow's Goldeneye population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 4-76%198721
Northern Pacific Rainforest-19%199610
Great Basin+117%197313
Northern Rockies-12%197728

Barrow's Goldeneye Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 732% since 1972.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.