BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barrow's Goldeneye Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWaterfowl

Barrow's Goldeneye in Alaska has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

-28%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barrow's Goldeneye Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barrow's Goldeneye in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Barrow's Goldeneye Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Barrow's Goldeneye in Alaska is projected to fall about 61% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-61%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barrow's Goldeneye in Alaska is projected to fall about 61% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.27
20260.070.000.27
20270.060.000.27
20280.060.000.26
20290.050.000.26

Barrow's Goldeneye Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Barrow's Goldeneye in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mccarthy Rd2920231994
Chiniak520242000
Pinoche Tral (Short)419841984
Nabesna Road220151996
Hather Creek220131994
Cordova220042003
Kenny Lake220211983
Sheep Mtn220141999
Petersville220031992
Lake Louise220111993
Slana120241997
Kuskulana120241993
Maclaren120242006
Monahan120131983
Cantwell120051998
Chena Hot Spring 2119991999
Toklat120181987
Seward119821982
Burma Road120072007
Thompson Pas120192001
Sourdough120242021
Tonsina120142014
Hyder120002000
Seven Lakes120231989
Harlequin L.119951995

Barrow's Goldeneye Population Trend in Other States

coloradoidahomontanaoregonwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.