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Species · Washington · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barrow's Goldeneye Population Trend in Washington

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Barrow's Goldeneye in Washington has surged: up 89% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+89%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barrow's Goldeneye Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barrow's Goldeneye has surged in Washington: up 89% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Barrow's Goldeneye Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Barrow's Goldeneye in Washington is projected to fall about 74% by 2030 — from 0.33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-74%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barrow's Goldeneye in Washington is projected to fall about 74% by 2030 — from 0.33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.090.000.24
20270.090.000.24
20280.090.000.24
20290.090.000.24
20300.090.000.24

Barrow's Goldeneye Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Barrow's Goldeneye in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rimrock1220251972
Ronald420251973
Laurier420011996
Curlew219941994
Cusick120241982
Leavenworth119951995
Twisp120241970
Omak Creek120242011
No Cascades120191994
Packwood120142002
Moses Coulee120011995
Nighthawk120172009
Tonasket120101985

Barrow's Goldeneye Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.