BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barrow's Goldeneye In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesWaterfowl

Barrow's Goldeneye in Northern Rockies has edged up: up 13% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+13%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barrow's Goldeneye in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barrow's Goldeneye in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±302.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±302.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barrow's Goldeneye in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±302.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.250.001.00
20260.250.000.99
20270.240.000.99
20280.230.000.98
20290.230.000.97

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Barrow's Goldeneye in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YellowstoneWYOMING242022
Hayden ValWYOMING191986
Red RockMONTANA61995
AugustaMONTANA42014
LaurierWASHINGTON42001
St MaryMONTANA31994
Ne EntranceWYOMING32019
Hebgen LakeMONTANA22024
CurlewWASHINGTON21994
DuboisWYOMING22012
AlpineWYOMING21993
WilsonWYOMING21993
Soda LakeWYOMING21996
Fiddler LkWYOMING22024
SeedskadeeWYOMING21994
NaplesIDAHO12022
Yellow PineIDAHO12003
EllistonMONTANA12018
Wise RiverMONTANA12005
Logan PassMONTANA11994
CusickWASHINGTON12024
Omak CreekWASHINGTON12024
MammothWYOMING12010
Hunter PeakWYOMING12024
MooseWYOMING12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.