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Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barrow's Goldeneye In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWaterfowl

Barrow's Goldeneye in Great Basin has surged: up 117% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+117%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barrow's Goldeneye in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Barrow's Goldeneye In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barrow's Goldeneye in Great Basin is projected to fall about 84% by 2030 — from 0.12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-84%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±98.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barrow's Goldeneye in Great Basin is projected to fall about 84% by 2030 — from 0.12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.020.000.15
20270.020.000.15
20280.020.000.15
20290.020.000.15
20300.020.000.15

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Barrow's Goldeneye in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SpringfieldIDAHO151976
RimrockWASHINGTON122025
RonaldWASHINGTON42025
Iron SpringsIDAHO32015
BatesIDAHO32002
SistersOREGON32009
JosephOREGON11993
TwispWASHINGTON12024
TonasketWASHINGTON12010
LeavenworthWASHINGTON11995
NighthawkWASHINGTON12017
Moses CouleeWASHINGTON12001
No CascadesWASHINGTON12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.