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Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barrow's Goldeneye In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWaterfowl

Barrow's Goldeneye in Great Basin has risen sharply: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+53%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barrow's Goldeneye has risen sharply in Great Basin: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Barrow's Goldeneye In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barrow's Goldeneye in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±97.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barrow's Goldeneye in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.14
20260.010.000.14
20270.010.000.14
20280.010.000.14
20290.010.000.14

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Barrow's Goldeneye in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SpringfieldIDAHO151976
RimrockWASHINGTON52024
RonaldWASHINGTON42023
Iron SpringsIDAHO32015
BatesIDAHO32002
SistersOREGON32009
JosephOREGON11993
TwispWASHINGTON12024
TonasketWASHINGTON12010
LeavenworthWASHINGTON11995
NighthawkWASHINGTON12017
Moses CouleeWASHINGTON12001
No CascadesWASHINGTON12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.